19 年上个周期熊市的时候 @cburniske 写的文章，现在复盘，不仅对 20/21 年牛市可能发生的现象预言精准，甚至 19 年就被解释清楚的错误，23 年人们还在犯。金融市场中人的记忆尤其短暂，几乎不会在历史中吸取任何教训，丝毫不怀疑这个循环会继续下去。
//这样的思考，值得花力气研究其底层逻辑 。能够拉开与大多数人的认知差距。
原文地址：https://medium.com/@cburniske/the-best-time-to-buy-build-tokens-d14ebe7acbd3
Over the last few quarters, we’ve watched entrepreneurs shift their fundraising focus from token-based protocols to the relative safety of equity-capitalized, cash-flow extracting businesses.
在过去的几个季度中，我们看到企业家将融资重点从基于代币的协议转向相对安全的股权资本化、现金流提取业务。
Within crypto, if 2017 deal-flow was 75% token-based, 25% equity-based, then 2019 has been the inverse, and the token-based deals are continuing to slow [1].
在加密货币领域，如果 2017 年的交易流 75% 基于代币，25% 基于股权，那么 2019 年则相反，基于代币的交易继续放缓 [1]。
Long run, we expect there to be thousands of equity-capitalized businesses making use of each successful protocol, which means there will be more companies than protocols, and the noted inversion of deal-flow is rational. Furthermore, we should expect a reversion to the psychological safety of what’s known in a time of heightened risk aversion.
从长远来看，我们预计将有数以千计的股权资本企业利用每个成功的协议，这意味着公司数量将多于协议数量，而且交易流的倒转是合理的。此外，我们应该预期，在风险规避加剧的时期，心理安全感将会回归。
That said, just as people in 2017 regretted their 2014/2015/2016 decision to abandon bitcoin for blockchain, many people in 2021 will regret their 2018/2019/2020 decision to abandon tokens for equity. Especially if they had a good idea but faltered due to the bearishness of the climate. This will apply to both entrepreneurs and investors, and the regret will harden conviction behind tokens over the long run.
也就是说，就像 2017 年人们对 2014/2015/2016 年放弃比特币转向区块链的决定感到遗憾一样，2021 年许多人也会对 2018/2019/2020 年放弃代币转向股权的决定感到遗憾。特别是如果他们有一个好主意，但由于气候恶劣而动摇的话。这对企业家和投资者都适用，从长远来看，遗憾将坚定代币背后的信念。
Regret won’t come because launching or investing in a successful token-based protocol is easy [2]. Candidly, launching a protocol has a greater chance of failure than launching a company, because the playbooks of protocols are being written as we speak.
后悔不会来，因为启动或投资一个成功的基于代币的协议很容易[2]。坦率地说，启动一个协议比启动一家公司失败的可能性更大，因为协议的剧本正在我们说话的时候写出来。
But the feeling of lost opportunity will arise when the protocols that become successful dwarf the scale of most companies, and people realize that many successful models were hidden in plain sight in 2018/2019/2020. When this happens, there will be a strong sense of FOMO, which is likely to bring another (better-regulated) token-boom in the middle-stage of the next bull market [3].
但是，当成功的协议使大多数公司的规模相形见绌时，人们就会意识到许多成功的模式在 2018/2019/2020 年都隐藏在人们的视线中，从而产生了失去机会的感觉。当这种情况发生时，就会出现强烈的 FOMO 意识，这很可能会在下一次牛市中期带来另一场（监管更好的）代币热潮[3]。
Frenzied booms tend to happen in the middle of crypto’s bull markets due to the combination of
- influxes of new people
- availability bias
- hasty expected value (EV) calculations, where EV = Probability x Reward.
由于 1) 新人涌入 2) 可用性偏差 3) 仓促的预期价值 (EV) 计算，其中 EV = 概率 x 奖励，加密货币牛市中往往会出现疯狂的繁荣。
When new entrepreneurs and investors enter crypto in a bull market, it appears like everyone doing the “new thing” is making tons of money. They overweight the probability of the new thing succeeding (availability bias) and combine it with the large rewards they’re witnessing. Huge expected value!
当新的企业家和投资者在牛市中进入加密货币时，似乎每个做“新事物”的人都赚了很多钱。他们过度重视新事物成功的可能性（可用性偏差），并将其与他们所目睹的巨额回报结合起来。巨大的预期价值！
But when the bear market comes calling, these new entrants watch in despair as the probability of their “new thing(s)” succeeding plummet (the vast majority of new things will fail), and asset values fall off a cliff. Low expected value.
但当熊市到来时，这些新进入者绝望地看着他们的“新事物”成功的可能性直线下降（绝大多数新事物都会失败），资产价值也断崖式下跌。预期值低。
As the bear market drags on, new entrants’ availability bias switches to the much deeper mental-grooves of things they’ve seen work over long periods of time. Given crypto’s only been around for 10 years, these tend to be non-crypto native models.
随着熊市的持续，新进入者的可用性偏见转向了他们长期看到的更深层的心理模式。鉴于加密技术只存在了 10 年，这些往往是非加密原生模型。
The path to success for proven models appears clearer to them, and while the reward may not be as astronomical, it could still be pretty good, and so the majority of new entrants set down a path that represents a reversion to the mean.
经过验证的模型的成功之路对他们来说似乎更加清晰，虽然回报可能不是天文数字，但仍然可能相当不错，因此大多数新进入者设定了一条代表回归均值的路径。
Given bull markets tend to at least double the number of participants in crypto, there are more “new people” involved at the end of a bull market than there were “old people” at the beginning — to put it bluntly, the noobs outnumber the OGs.
鉴于牛市往往会使加密货币的参与者数量至少增加一倍，因此牛市结束时参与的“新人”比开始时的“老人”还要多——说白了，菜鸟的数量超过了牛市开始时的“老人”。 OG。
If the new people revert to what’s known, it swings the majority of activity in that direction, which is what we saw with “blockchain not bitcoin” in 2015, and what we’re seeing with “equities not tokens” in 2019. Meanwhile, the smaller group of committed OGs that have thought about the “new thing” for a long time will carry on with conviction because they’ve been through these cycles before, which has hardened their availability bias towards crypto-native models and weighted their EV calculations in the direction of the “new thing.”
如果新人回归已知的事物，那么大多数活动就会朝这个方向发展，这就是我们在 2015 年看到的“区块链而不是比特币”，以及我们在 2019 年看到的“股票而不是代币”。同时，一小群长期思考“新事物”的坚定 OG 将继续坚定信念，因为他们之前已经经历过这些周期，这强化了他们对加密原生模型的可用性偏见，并加权了他们的 EV 计算朝着“新事物”的方向发展。
//正如2023年开发全链游戏的人
Coming back to today, people have been shaken from the token-dream because the idea has lost social momentum, is undergoing its first availability hardening, and 95% of the tokens in the market don’t work.
回到今天，人们已经从代币梦想中动摇了，因为这个想法已经失去了社会动力，正在经历第一次可用性强化，市场上 95% 的代币都不起作用。
//就像2023年，人们对空投的信念动摇一样。
I’ll come back to the social momentum and availability hardening in a moment, but want to first underscore that many people were pointing out in 2017 that 95% of ICOs launching were opportunistic junk, and so we shouldn’t be surprised in 2019 when it turns out that 95% of the tokens in the market are indeed junk and don’t work.
我稍后会回到社会动力和可用性强化问题，但首先要强调的是，许多人在 2017 年指出，95% 的 ICO 推出都是机会主义垃圾，因此我们在 2019 年不应该感到惊讶事实证明，市场上95%的代币确实是垃圾，没有用。
But don’t let the tokens that aren’t working, and never were going to work, distract you from the tokens that were thought through thoroughly from inception and are showing signs of working. Roughly, I’d say there are less than 50 tokens with real utility in existence, placing us at < 2.5% of the tokens listed on CoinMarketCap; but 50 still provides plenty of inspiration to study and learn from.
但不要让那些不起作用或永远不会起作用的代币分散了你对那些从一开始就经过彻底思考并显示出起作用迹象的代币的注意力。粗略地说，我认为存在真正实用性的代币不到 50 个，占 CoinMarketCap 上列出的代币的 2.5% 以下；但这50个仍然提供了大量学习的灵感。
//今天的市场，BTC、ETH、Uni。其他想不出来了。
Now to the social momentum and availability hardening of ideas in crypto. As crazy as it was, 2017 represented the mainstream birth of the idea of a token for each network.
现在谈谈加密货币思想的社会动力和可用性强化。尽管疯狂，但 2017 年代表了每个网络代币概念的主流诞生。
Yes, seeds of the idea were laid for years prior, but it was in 2017 that the concept blossomed to a scale where it consumed society, albeit briefly.
是的，这个想法的种子早在几年前就已埋下，但直到 2017 年，这个概念才发展到一定规模，并席卷了整个社会，尽管时间很短暂。
As Nouriel put it, “It is clear by now that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies represent the mother of all bubbles, which explains why literally every human being I met between Thanksgiving and Christmas of 2017 asked me first if they should buy them.” No, the mainstream didn’t grasp all the nuances and ramifications, and nor did most entrepreneurs or investors (maybe none of us did), but at the very least, many became aware.
正如 Nouriel 所说，“现在很明显，比特币和其他加密货币代表了所有泡沫之母，这解释了为什么我在 2017 年感恩节到圣诞节期间遇到的每个人都首先问我是否应该购买它们。”不，主流并没有掌握所有的细微差别和影响，大多数企业家或投资者也没有掌握（也许我们都没有），但至少，许多人意识到了。
Post the 2017 idea-frenzy and brief social momentum, we now find ourselves in 2019 where the concept of a token for each network is going through its first serious bear market. Tokens have lost momentum, they’re no longer cool, and if anything, the first reaction is one of skepticism. And so useful implementations of tokens are being proven right now, but to far less fanfare than 2017. The doubters have stopped paying attention, the haters have mistakenly equated depression with defeat.
经过 2017 年的创意狂热和短暂的社会势头之后，我们现在发现自己进入了 2019 年，每个网络的代币概念正在经历第一个严重的熊市。代币已经失去了动力，它们不再酷了，如果说有什么不同的话，第一反应就是怀疑。因此，代币的有用实现现在正在得到证明，但比 2017 年要少得多。怀疑者已经不再关注，仇恨者错误地将抑郁等同于失败。
But the token models that get through this bear market, and then inflect in the proximate bull market, will thereby be hardened when they reach their 2nd bear market. The process is akin to what bitcoin went through in 2014 and 2015, after its first mainstream bubble of 2013. In 2014 and 2015, bitcoin wasn’t taken for granted as something that was destined to survive in the way I see it characterized now.
但是，度过本次熊市并在近期牛市中发挥作用的代币模型，在进入第二次熊市时将变得更加坚固。这个过程类似于比特币在 2013 年第一次主流泡沫之后在 2014 年和 2015 年经历的情况。在 2014 年和 2015 年，比特币并没有被理所当然地认为注定会以我现在所看到的方式生存下来。
Instead, it was severely doubted.
反而遭到了严重质疑。
But bitcoin is now taken for granted precisely because of the battle-testing it went through in 2014 and 2015 (not to mention the wild times before the mainstream was watching).
但比特币现在被认为是理所当然的，正是因为它在 2014 年和 2015 年经历了战斗考验（更不用说主流观看之前的狂野时代）。
Regardless of whether people stayed committed to bitcoin in 2014/2015 or jumped to blockchain-land, they all then watched what bitcoin did in 2017. The availability bias shifted strongly towards probability of bitcoin succeeding, the indelibility of the impression weighted by the money that was made or lost.
无论人们是在 2014/2015 年继续致力于比特币还是跳入区块链领域，他们都关注了比特币在 2017 年的表现。可用性偏差强烈转向比特币成功的可能性，即通过金钱加权的不可磨灭的印象。被创造或失去。
Committed bitcoin entrepreneurs have learned to avoid the mistake of defecting when they should be building; committed investors have learned to not divest when they should invest.
坚定的比特币企业家已经学会避免在应该建设时叛逃的错误；坚定的投资者已经学会了在应该投资的时候不要撤资。
While other token-based protocols have ridden a little on bitcoin’s pioneering coattails, they still have a doubt trail to trod before conviction in the underlying ideas becomes hardened (in particular, the non-PoW tokens).
虽然其他基于代币的协议在一定程度上借鉴了比特币的先驱性成果，但在对基本思想的信念变得坚定之前，它们仍然有一段疑虑要走（特别是非 PoW 代币）。
So where does that leave us now? As this bear market persists, we can expect a continued shift in focus towards cash-flow extracting, equity-capitalized businesses, as teams quietly sideline plans for a token (if they ever had one).
那么现在我们该怎么办呢？随着熊市持续存在，我们可以预期，随着团队悄悄搁置代币计划（如果他们曾经有过的话），焦点将持续转向现金流提取、股权资本化业务。
For many teams, dreams of a token won’t die entirely, they’ll instead be placed on backburners as they watch to see what cryptonetworks are gaining traction [4], and what cryptoeconomic models are being put to use [5].
对于许多团队来说，代币的梦想不会完全消失，而是会被搁置，因为他们会观察哪些加密网络正在获得关注[4]，以及哪些加密经济模型正在被使用[5]。
When the next bull market arrives, the token-models that are providing real utility [6] are likely to go through another parabolic frenzy, with the fodder of speculation around radical innovation turbocharged by early-liquidity and a continued long-bias in the cryptomarkets.
当下一个牛市到来时，提供实际效用的代币模型 [6] 可能会经历另一场抛物线狂潮，早期流动性和加密市场中持续的多头偏见将推动激进创新的投机。
There will be another rush of opportunistic and poorly-thought-through launches as people scramble to make up for lost time. While capital will be plentiful again, it will be a bad time to be an entrepreneur or investor trying to do thoughtful work in the space.
当人们争先恐后地弥补失去的时间时，将会出现另一波机会主义和考虑不周的发币热潮。虽然资本将再次充裕，但对于试图在该领域进行深思熟虑的工作的企业家或投资者来说，这将是一个糟糕的时机。
Quality entrepreneurs will get lost in the noise or raise too much money, which will haunt them later. Quality investors will get drunk on their own kool-aid or become jaded with the behavior they’re witnessing.
优秀的企业家会在喧嚣中迷失方向，或者筹集过多的资金，这将在以后困扰他们。优质投资者会沉迷于自己的酷爱，或者对他们所目睹的行为感到厌倦。
But in the following bear market, builders and investors won’t forget the lesson. Availability biases will have been hardened in favor of tokens, and there will be more competition around building and funding protocols, which is good for crypto. But in my opinion, if you have the conviction, 2019 will have been the best time to be a token builder or buyer.
但在接下来的熊市中，建筑商和投资者不会忘记这一教训。可用性偏差将更加倾向于代币，并且围绕构建和资助协议的竞争将会更加激烈，这对加密货币来说是有利的。但在我看来，如果你有信念，2019 年将是成为代币建造者或买家的最佳时机。
Footnotes: 脚注：
[1] Token-based deals can start out as an equity investment, aligning early-investors and developers for a period in what we call a placeholder development company (Joel will write about this more soon). But if the intent is ultimately to give investors a claim on tokens (as opposed to cash-flows), I still consider such an equity-structuring to be a token-based deal, placing it in the 25% minority of 2019.
[1] 基于代币的交易可以从股权投资开始，在一段时间内将早期投资者和开发商联合起来，在我们所谓的占位开发公司中（Joel 将很快对此进行讨论）。但如果最终目的是让投资者对代币（而不是现金流）有索取权，我仍然认为这种股权结构是基于代币的交易，将其置于 2019 年 25% 的少数派中。
[2] In fact, many teams and investors currently regret their 2017-token-decisions if they were made rashly and for opportunistic reasons.
[2]事实上，许多团队和投资者目前都对他们 2017 年的代币决定感到后悔，如果他们是出于机会主义原因而草率做出的。
[3] I disagree with many of my beloved crypto friends that say, “alts are never coming back.” To the contrary, I think 2017 was likely the warm-up.
[3] 我不同意许多我心爱的加密货币朋友的说法，“山寨币永远不会回来”。相反，我认为 2017 年可能是预热期。
[4] Those that have already launched a cryptoasset will continue to iterate on their models. Most will fail, some will work, and those that work everyone will learn from.
[4] 那些已经推出加密资产的人将继续迭代他们的模型。大多数会失败，有些会奏效，而那些行之有效的人可以从中学习。
Relatively few, on a comparable basis, will attempt to launch tokens in this bear market, but by-and-large the attempts will be more thoughtful. One variable contributing to fewer, but more thoughtful token-launches, is that capital’s harder to come by for a token team right now.
在可比的基础上，尝试在熊市中发行代币的公司相对较少，但总的来说，这些尝试将更加深思熟虑。导致代币发行数量减少但更加深思熟虑的一个变量是，目前代币团队更难获得资金。
Investors are asking tougher questions given the heightened perceived risk of funding protocols, leading to a more robust selection process.
鉴于融资协议的风险加大，投资者提出了更棘手的问题，从而导致了更稳健的选择过程。
[5] In the future we will see more cryptonetworks that closely follow the cryptoeconomic-playbook of other already-successful networks that are provisioning similar, but still different, services.
[5] 未来，我们将看到更多的加密网络紧密遵循其他已经成功的网络的加密经济剧本，这些网络正在提供类似但仍然不同的服务。
To some extent, this pattern of behavior has happened already, first with proof-of-work, more recently with (delegated)-proof-of-stake. But thus far the strokes of imitation have been much rougher than the granularity that I think we can expect in the future.
在某种程度上，这种行为模式已经发生了，首先是工作量证明，最近是（委托）股权证明。但到目前为止，模仿的力度比我认为我们未来可以预期的粒度要粗糙得多。
For example, I expect the provisioning of most “compute commodities” to end up with very similar cryptoeconomic models, where there will be a capital asset model to coordinate supply-siders to bond their assets to provision the service (and ensure castigation should they misbehave), with rewards doled out according to some function from there.
例如，我预计大多数“计算商品”的提供最终都会产生非常相似的加密经济模型，其中将有一个资本资产模型来协调供应方将其资产绑定以提供服务（并确保如果他们行为不端会受到严厉惩罚） ），并根据其中的某些功能发放奖励。
Sure, the functions will vary, as will the supply-inflation and deflation rates, but the basic principles will be taken for granted in a way that we almost can’t fathom now. There will be best practices, as opposed to best guesses.
当然，功能会有所不同，供给通胀率和通货紧缩率也会有所不同，但基本原则将以一种我们现在几乎无法理解的方式被视为理所当然。将会有最佳实践，而不是最佳猜测。
[6] What will real utility look like? It will be cryptonetworks that take in capital and labor as inputs and spit out a novel-yet-useful service, or a service on par with that which a company already provides, but at a fraction of the cost.
[6] 真正的效用会是什么样子？它将是加密网络，它以资本和劳动力为输入，并提供新颖但有用的服务，或者与公司已经提供的服务相当的服务，但成本只是其一小部分。
If the service is novel — such as the censorship-resistant digital gold that bitcoin has become — then it will get a pass on the cost-efficiency front (for now).
如果这项服务很新颖——比如比特币已经成为抗审查的数字黄金——那么它将在成本效率方面获得通过（目前）。
If the service is undifferentiated from what an equity-capitalized business already produces, then the cryptonetwork will have to offer it an order-of-magnitude cheaper to get people to definitively make the switch (note that undifferentiated means the service is just as reliable, easy-to-use, interoperable, etc).
如果该服务与股权资本化企业已经提供的服务没有区别，那么加密网络将必须以更便宜的价格提供服务，才能让人们最终做出转换（请注意，无区别意味着该服务同样可靠，易于使用、可互操作等）。
This is not to say every service will thrive when provisioned by a cryptonetwork. Only the services that thrive off decentralization, be it for cost, trust, or performance reasons, will survive over the long run.
这并不是说每项服务在由加密网络提供时都会蓬勃发展。无论是出于成本、信任还是性能原因，只有依靠去中心化而蓬勃发展的服务才能长期生存。
Many other services will continue to be better provisioned under an equity-model, not to mention the many companies that will build viable businesses by amalgamating and candy-coating the underyling services provided by cryptonetworks.
许多其他服务将继续在股权模式下得到更好的提供，更不用说许多公司将通过合并和糖果化加密网络提供的底层服务来建立可行的业务。